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Prediction of the global occurrence of maize diseases and estimation of yield loss under climate change

文献类型： 外文期刊

作者： Ma, Zihui 1 ; Wang, Wenbao 1 ; Chen, Xuanjing 2 ; Gehman, Katrina 3 ; Yang, Hua 4 ; Yang, Yuheng 1 ;

作者机构： 1.Southwest Univ, Coll Plant Protect, Key Lab Agr Biosafety & Green Prod Upper Yangtze R, Minist Educ, Chongqing, Peoples R China

2.Southwest Univ, Coll Resources & Environm, Interdisciplinary Res Ctr Agr Green Dev Yangtze Ri, Key Lab Low Carbon Green Agr Southwestern China,Mi, Chongqing, Peoples R China

3.Meridian Inst, Washington, DC USA

4.Chongqing Acad Agr Sci, Corn Res Inst, Chongqing, Peoples R China

关键词： climate change; CMIP6; MaxEnt model; maize diseases; prevalence prediction; yield loss; food security

期刊名称：PEST MANAGEMENT SCIENCE （ 影响因子：3.8； 五年影响因子：4.3 ）

ISSN： 1526-498X

年卷期： 2024 年

页码：

收录情况： SCI

摘要： BACKGROUNDClimate change significantly impacts global maize production via yield reduction, posing a threat to global food security. Disease-related crop damage reduces quality and yield and results in economic losses. However, the occurrence of diseases caused by climate change, and thus crop yield loss, has not been given much attention.RESULTSThis study aims to investigate the potential impact of six major diseases on maize yield loss over the next 20 to 80 years under climate change. To this end, the Maximum Entropy model was implemented, based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 data. The results indicated that temperature and precipitation are identified as primary limiting factors for disease onset. Southern corn rust was projected to be the most severe disease in the future; with a few of the combined occurrence of all the selected diseases covered in this study were predicted to progressively worsen over time. Yield losses caused by diseases varied per continent, with North America facing the highest loss, followed by Asia, South America, Europe, Africa, and Oceania.CONCLUSIONThis study provides a basis for regional projections and global control of maize diseases under future climate conditions. (c) 2024 Society of Chemical Industry. Analysis of the occurrence of maize diseases and their resulting yield losses revealed that temperature and precipitation were identified as the main factors influencing disease development, and the combined occurrence of selected diseases is expected to progressively worsen over time. Additionally, yield losses due to diseases varied from continent to continent. This study provides a basis for regional projection and global management of maize diseases under future climate conditions. image

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